I am aware of the science that predicts the poleward shift of the global atmospheric circulations, and this research undertaken by the Australian Grains Export Innovation Centre (AEGIC) (2016) that supports our average climates are moving south and have moved around 300 to 400 kms over the past 20 or so years. My question is; to what extent, if any, are the past two summers (NSW especially) explained by this southerly shift? Is this likely to be the new normal?
Jim is a mixed livestock and grains producer from the New England region.
April's answer comes from Professor Mark Howden and Dr Steven Crimp, Fenner School, Australian National University
About our Scientists
Professor Mark Howden is the Director of the Climate Change Institute at the Australian National University. He is also an Honorary Professor at Melbourne University, School of Land and Food. Mark’s work has focussed on how climate impacts on, and innovative adaptation options for, systems we value: agriculture and food security, the natural resource base, ecosystems and biodiversity, energy, water and urban systems. He has also developed the national (NGGI) and international (IPCC/OECD) greenhouse gas inventories for the agricultural sector and assessed sustainable methods of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture.
Mark has worked on climate variability, climate change, innovation and adoption issues for over 27 years in partnership with farmers, farmer groups, catchment groups, industry bodies, agribusiness, urban utilities and various policy agencies via both research and science-policy roles. Mark has over 390 publications of different types. He has been a major contributor to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second, Third, Fourth and Fifth Assessment reports and various IPCC Special Reports, sharing the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with other IPCC participants and Al Gore. Recently Mark sat on the US Federal Advisory Committee for the 3rd National Climate Assessment and he participates in several other international science and policy advisory bodies.
Dr Steven Crimp is a climate applications scientist with the Climate Change Institute at the Australian National University. His role in CCI is to examine opportunities for improved climate risk management, within primary industries, both in Australia and internationally as well as seek opportunities to work more closely with multi-national and global food producers, telecommunications, and other industries in this area.
Before joining ANU, Steve worked for the Agriculture and Food Business Unit of CSIRO, contributing to the Global Food Security in a Changing world research program.